There are no easy answers. Is immersed for scientists from non-screaming and contradictions, of course. It is easy to head in the sand with the thought of burying "I would like warm weather anyway."
And non-scientists do not necessarily ignorance - knowingly or not true. Between these opposing views and a simplistic view is more realistic and constructive in terms of global climate change.
It is controversial, it is natural for such a complex science. Science evolves, as it is, and should be an open question. The debate in the climate of consensus that the story about the world are already experiencing the first signs of global warming says.
A primer for other enthusiasts. Here we present a picture of our climate. As it was, as it is and should be in the near future.
This image is of climatic parameters.
Now is the time to give a speech in hamstring based on misleading information, crime - on both sides of this issue.
Would not it be great if we could leave future generations a prosperous economy and a healthy environment and stable? Must be that the two are not mutually exclusive.
Greenhouse
Global warming is a natural phenomenon of the terrestrial environment and are aware of the importance of climate on Earth as we do. With the phenomenon of global warming, natural, and the earth is the average temperature of 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit). Without them, the average temperature of 18 degrees Celsius less (or 0 degrees Fahrenheit).
The world would be a very cool place to be, yes!
Global warming occurs naturally due to the presence of "greenhouse gases", including water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2), into the trap the sun's heat in the atmosphere and the climate is relatively mild and stable. Are pumping carbon dioxide from the breathing of the animals again in the atmosphere, which is then taken by plants during photosynthesis. Animals take oxygen released by plants, and the cycle continues.
The balance of nature is a wonderful thing.
A lot of good
Come to the burning of fossil fuels and humanity of our miles. In fact started with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1750 burning of these fuels - coal, oil and natural gas - a significant increase in the presence of a natural CO2 in the atmosphere. CO2 is not the only culprit, and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. Agriculture produces methane and nitrous oxide and aerosol propellants production of CFCs - to know all of the negative impact on the ozone layer). CO2 is the major greenhouse gas because of the large amount released into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels.
About 1750, and the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere about 275 ppm. Today is the concentration of 387 ppm, an increase of 30% and rising. Since the second half of the twentieth century, the rate of growth and currently stands at around 3% annually.
It is clear that there is a rapid increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the industrial society.
But what the impact on the Earth's climate?
If the temperature of the Earth
Record the temperature in one place on earth is one thing, but how can we, the temperature of the earth as a whole?
We have records of daily temperatures in many parts of the world from more than one hundred and fifty years. As expected, there is a wide variation in global temperatures on average. But the general trend, an increase of half a degree Celsius (or Fahrenheit) since the mid-nineteenth century.
No voice does not sound like much, right? But can have a significant impact on the climate, as we shall see.
First see the problems with precise control over the average temperature on the ground with the passage of time will look like. Among the problems:
Change the design and the accuracy of the thermometer in the last century and a half - * machines.
* Urban heat islands. "Has been climate change and urban areas, the existence of the urban environment. A lot of data in the storage temperature of official and around the city, in addition to some of the points of data collection at one time was the election campaign, and now urban areas. PRO data collection will change over time.
* Geographical bias. Most of the points of data collection in the industrialized countries, and urbanization in the world, with the known effects of heat island more visible.
It could be all these problems be false and misleading global warming?
Yes, of course.
These are known problems. Thus, it is to get half a degree increase in the number one in the average global temperature of the raw data, but adapted to the various factors that contribute to compensate the raw data.
Picture we have so far show a significant increase of CO2 in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. It also shows an increase of half a degree Celsius average global temperatures since the mid-nineteenth century.
What caused this increase in average temperature? It's just a natural variation, or do you really climate change? If so, this is a result of climate change, and the industrialized countries of human society?
We have some action on the ground accordingly. Now, to continue to build our image.
Climate modeling
Climate scientists build computer models of climate change will increase the temperature and the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and seems to increase. And these models can be increased one degree Celsius in temperature. This is not too far from the marked increase of the layer and a half. However, it is double, and enough to worry about the accuracy of these models, or claim that we live in a global warming. Traditionally, most researchers slightly inclined to attribute to the global temperature of the observed warming of mankind is partly a result of this difference.
As previously mentioned, science is evolving. Has removed the improvements in climate models and observations of changes in the environment the reluctance of most climate scientists.
Retreat of glaciers and rising sea levels, dying coral reefs, and reduces the migration of plants and animals, and daily temperatures and stronger and more frequent "events of severe floods" (a lot of rain in a short time) has been proposed in the current climate models of global warming. All these phenomena are taken into account, including climate change, to some extent. Then, the warmest years all occurred after 1990 and 2005, and on top of the list. It is clear that the vast majority of experts, that global warming is happening.
The next question is now resting on the causes of global climate change is happening, and the actual impact will have on future climate and civilization.
Paleoclimate
The best way to answer this question is to look back on our climate 100,000 years and more ...
If we have a lot of trouble to take the temperature of the earth in the last century, and how can we hope ever to see the ancient Earth's climate to that?
Cores of polar ice caps, scientists can tell about the molecular composition of precipitation as it fell to the ground. These effects of ice bomb, and the temperature of those ancient times, and changes in temperature and climate over the eons. We distinguish between natural changes and human resources.
There are regular patterns of the ice ages lasting about 100,000 years ago. Is the separation of these ice ages, periods of warmer "interglacial" 20000 years ago. We are currently in the interglacial period.
We have samples of ice cores, and we know that the difference in temperature between the ice age and warm period of five fifty-five degrees Celsius (eight to twelve degrees Celsius). We also know caught, ancient air bubbles in these samples that the temperature fluctuations in a close relationship with the changes in the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The rate of temperature change on these natural fluctuations of one degree for every thousand years, much slower than the current rate. We have a concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is higher than ever, on the basis of our core ice data.
It is clear that we have changed the atmosphere.
However, we really need to change to make more than half a degree Celsius concern? We can begin to answer this question by examining the recent past.
In England in the Middle Ages and the "Little Ice Age"
From historical records, scientists can determine the changes in the average temperature in central England for a thousand years. In general, the average temperature in England at this time ten degrees Celsius (degrees fifty-F). There was no change in the average temperature of one degree Celsius or even half of the average ten degrees.
This change has led to large changes in climate, including the vineyards in England, and colonialism in Greenland conducted in the warm periods and the formation of ice on the River Thames in times of cold. In fact, described in 1600 as the "Little Ice Age."
In the past, look to the future
Now we have a picture of temperature change, industrialization, urbanization, rapid growth and unprecedented in the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Our understanding of ancient climate change in the pattern between the ages of glacial ice, including changes in temperature required to pay these fluctuations.
We also have a copy of the recent past, in the middle of England, and how changes in temperature an average of only half a degree Celsius over the last millennium may cause large changes in climate.
How can we use this data to create realistic expectations of climate change in the next hundred years?
Most climate models predict increases in average temperatures between the degree and recommended one and three in the next century. Any of the climate models predict that the decline in global temperatures.
Let's split the difference and the equivalent of two degree Celsius increase in average temperature. The potential impact of this growth, and rising sea level in a year and a half to three meters and changing rainfall patterns and flooding more extreme. As mentioned above, has already been that these effects have been identified.
Other potential effects of increased intensity of storms and the destruction of trees. You can say that these effects are observed in the climate. Can not be that some of these impacts through pollution and habitat destruction are directly linked to the phenomenon of global warming caused.
Difficult to predict, and perhaps less vulnerable to the impact of temperatures have increased during the next century changes in ocean circulation patterns and tides can be expected from the ice. And these effects can lead to an imbalance in our climate radically.
We must remember that the amount of change in temperature and the size of ten to twenty times the natural variability in the past. Also keep in mind that the difference between ice age glaciers 5-6 degrees. You can change the speed of two degrees have a significant impact on the global climate.
Our image ...
And discusses the modeling and prediction of climate change on the basis of potential accumulation of greenhouse gases in the process is complex and controversial. More complex designs require months of continuous computer time to this project during the next century. As the development of science, so that there is a consensus of scientists.
Here is what we are sure that it is reasonable:
* The fact that we have a large amount of increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the industrial society.
* The fact that the concentration of carbon dioxide, more than ever, we have the information, and thousands of years.
* If there is a strong correlation between increasing CO2 concentration and increasing temperature from ice cores of ancient climates.
* Since we have an increase of one degree of temperature experienced in the past 150 years.
* To change the current temperature 1020 times faster than in the past.
* This degree of difference in a century more than half a century, can cause large climate change.
* Signature of global warming in the current climate.
What is certain:
* How much of a temperature increase actually happened in the next century, despite the expected increase of C 1-3.
Q: What is the impact of this increase in average global temperatures.
